Will the Dynamics of the PhosAgro repeat the dynamics?

Despite the fact that Acron’s shares showed an atypical dynamics in March 2020 — their quotes grew by 30% at the moment when the entire market fell. Further movement of the price did not differ in particular interest. At the same time, the prices of the products of Acron are already twice as high as early 2020, and sales are slowly growing.

However, the rise in prices for fertilizers in the world, which led to the rapid growth of the phosagro (+ 90% C end 2019), for some reason, it has not yet affects the price of acron’s shares. How can it be so?

Probably, it’s all about low liquidity and a low percentage of shares in free circulation. The smaller liquidity in the instrument, topics with less efficiency, the market estimates the business at the moment. Such shares are not in the focus of large investors and are not included in the composition of the sectoral ETF. Thus, the reaction to positive events or sentiment may occur with the delay until small participants will pay attention to this idea.

If you proceed from expectations of analysts, then Acron can get for 2021 ~ 60 billion, which gives forward p / e = 4, ~ 15 billion are probably sent to dividends, which is about 7% per annum, also today is the last day of the offer for reverse ransom 6050 rubles. Acron put 24.5 billion on buyback and redeems 10% of all stocks.

Such an assessment makes the company interesting to buying. Especially considering that when paying dividends, repel from the amount in dollars, and, accordingly, we can say that now 7% of the division of the dollar, and the operating expenses ruble. If you look at the accommodation schedule of Acron, translated into dollars, we will see that over the past few years he brought to the term growth of ~ 7% and ~ 7% of the dividend. Therefore, ~ 14% yield in dollars may well seem interesting.

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