Today, the Central Bank of Russia will re-sow on monetary policy and key rates. This week you can see that the Russian market was a bit under pressure, which probably indicates a reduction in positions to reduce portfolio volatility to important events in the market.
At the last meeting, the Central Bank accepted a fairly serious step by raising the key bet at 100 bp. up to 6.5% per annum. High inflation was forced to take such measures, which exceeded the forecasts of the Central Bank, even taking into account the retreat from its target 4% a few percent.
What are you visible now? Inflation even according to Rosstat, which, among other things, relies the Central Bank does not slow down. Moreover, lending rates grow, and therefore there are causes and opportunities to continue the tightening of the DCP.
At the moment, the market expects raising a bet on 50 bp. Thus, the rate will reach 7%
Combined with a high energy price and raw materials in world markets, the tightening of the DCT leads to the strengthening of the ruble. It is very likely that if we do not see serious economic shocks, the ruble exchange rate will either at the current levels, or descend a little lower. Although we will not forget that the budget rule of the Central Bank is bought daily to currency that the ruble weakens, so there are no unambiguous triggers for the occurrence of a specific trend.
Also, in addition to the positive for the ruble there is a factor of the dollar fortress. As long as QE dollar feels weakly relative to other currencies, but the hint and signals to its folding can lead to the strengthening of the dollar, and therefore the growth of the dollar / ruble rate.
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